Illinois Housing Market Report — October 2026

Scores: what moved this month

The independent Illinois RDN Market Score moved from 48.5 in September to 48.0 on October 1, compared with 53.3 in October 2025. Its “Mixed Market” verdict coexists with a “Stressed for both sides” quadrant: both the Buy Score, 39.9, and Sell Score, 42.3, were below 50. These are editorial indicators on a 0–100 scale, not transactions, appraisals or official government indexes.

The Buy Score crossed below 40 from September’s 41.0 (“Remodel & Stay”) to “Unfavorable Time to Buy.” Its mortgage-rate component fell to 0.7 of 12 points, from 1.7 in September and 4.5 a year earlier. On the selling side, the buyer-pool component fell to 0.5 of 10, from 1.4 in September and 3.8 a year earlier. Together, those changes explain why higher rates matter beyond a single financing statistic: they weigh on the conditions facing potential buyers and the pool of prospective purchasers facing sellers.

The Market Score’s buyer-conditions component was 8.0 of 20 and seller-conditions 8.5 of 20; both edged down. Credit-health contributed 4.2 of 12, while labor and income contributed 8.3 of 12, down from 9.7 a year earlier. The Buy Score was 46.4 and the Sell Score 48.2 in October 2025. Explore the live score breakdown; unlike this frozen report, the hub can change when source data are revised.

Home prices: annual gains persist, shorter-window growth is modest

The latest available measures cover different transactions and periods. Zillow’s Illinois typical home value was $297,573 in August, up 5.26% from $282,704 in August 2025. Its latest increase was 0.52% from July, with gains of 1.12% over three months and 1.96% over six months. Those shorter-window readings are more modest than the annual change; subsequent releases will be needed to establish whether the monthly pace slows further. Data provided by Zillow Group.

Redfin’s latest available Illinois median sale price at this cutoff was $337,900 for May, up 5.9% from $319,200 in May 2025. The series is not seasonally adjusted, so the comparison here is year over year rather than month to month. The FHFA Illinois purchase-only HPI reached 334.38 in Q2, up 0.51% from Q1’s 332.69 and 5.61% from Q2 2025’s 316.62. These three series measure different things; agreement on positive annual changes does not make their levels interchangeable.

Mortgage rates: a sharp September rise

The national Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed rate was 7.28% for the week of October 1, versus 6.71% on September 3: a rise of 0.57 percentage points in four weeks. It was 6.49% on July 9, 6.46% on April 2 and 6.34% on October 2, 2025, leaving the latest reading 0.94 points above its year-earlier level. This national survey rate is not a quote for any Illinois borrower.

That move is the largest identified driver of this month’s Buy Score decline. A higher quoted rate can change a financed purchase’s payment calculation even if an asking price has not moved; the score describes market conditions, not what any individual can afford or should do. See mortgage and credit data on the hub.

Supply and demand: more choice, a thinner pending pipeline

Illinois active listings reached 22,584 in September, up 5.8% from August’s 21,354 but only 0.2% above September 2025’s 22,540. The 2026 low was 16,666 in February. Pending listings, by contrast, fell to 14,615, down 8.2% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier. New listings were 12,438, down 2.4% from August and 4.8% year over year. Inventory near its year-earlier count alongside fewer pending listings is consistent with a weaker near-term buyer pipeline; it does not establish the outcome of any particular listing.

Price-reduced listings numbered 8,304, approximately 36.8% of active listings, versus approximately 36.5% a year earlier when 8,218 were price-reduced. This is a comparison of listing counts, not a measure of the size of individual price cuts. Median days on market was 39, compared with 40 a year earlier and 65 in January 2026. Seasonal patterns and the differing behavior of these measures argue against reading one month as a definitive turning point. The series come from Realtor.com® Economic Research via FRED®.

Economy, construction and remodeling inputs

Illinois unemployment was 4.7% in August, below the 5.1% recorded from March through June but above August 2025’s 4.3%. Seasonally adjusted private housing units authorized by building permits were about 1,871 in August, versus about 1,438 in July and about 1,483 a year earlier—approximately 26% higher year over year. Monthly authorization counts are volatile; an authorization is not a completed home.

National producer-price indexes also rose: goods inputs to residential construction were 349.0 in August, up 7.8% year over year, and lumber and wood products were 286.6, up 7.6%. These BLS indexes measure national producer prices, not Illinois retail prices, contractor bids or project quotes. Higher input indexes can add cost pressure without specifying what any local remodel will cost. Read the material-price methodology.

In a separately lagged credit series, 1.1% of Illinois mortgages were 90 or more days delinquent in December 2025, versus 0.8% in December 2024, according to CFPB Mortgage Performance Trends. Its older observation date matters: it is not an October 2026 delinquency reading.

Population and migration: an unusually large change

The Census Population Estimates Program vintage through July 1, 2025 shows Illinois net domestic migration of −40,017 people, compared with −53,080 in the prior year; net international migration was +44,752, versus +111,121. Total population change was +16,108, versus +69,644. These measures describe different components of population change and should not be conflated.

Combined net domestic and international migration fell by 53,306 persons year over year. Illinois RDN’s abnormal-signal check flags that change as extreme—about 3.1 robust standard deviations below its historical norm. This is a statistical flag on a published Census series, not an account of why people moved, a judgment about migration, or a forecast of future population or housing demand.